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      Something Wicked This Way Comes...   10/09/2019

      The Autumn Supporter Giveaway!       Welcome to the very first of the seasonal BCF supporter giveaways! This month also marks one year since I took on the forum, so I want to say an extra huge thank you to all of you for keeping this place going. I have a little bit more to say about that later but, for now, let's get to the giveaway!     The Autumn Giveaway winner will be getting two Penguin Little Black Classics, The Tell-Tale Heart by Edgar Allan Poe and To Be Read At Dusk by Charles Dickens. Both of these little books contain three atmospheric short stories, perfect for autumnal evenings. The winner will also get Mary Shelley tea (a lavender and vanilla black tea) from Rosie Lea Tea's Literary Tea Collection (https://www.rosieleatea.co.uk/collections/literary-tea-collection) and a chocolate skull, to really get that spooky atmosphere .   and...   A special treat for a special month. The winner will choose one of the following recent paperback releases from the independent bookshop Big Green Bookshop:       The Wych Elm by Tana French A House of Ghosts by W.C. Ryan Melmoth by Sarah Perry The Familiars by Stacey Halls  The Dark Descent of Elizabeth Frankenstein by Kiersten White   The winner will be chosen via the usual random selection process in one week. Patreon supporters are entered automatically. If you aren't a patreon supporter but you'd like to join in with this giveaway, you can support here: https://www.patreon.com/bookclubforum.   I really hope you're all going to like this introduction to the seasonal giveaways. It's been a lot of fun to put together. Other chocolate skulls may have been harmed during the selection process…     
Tiger

Favourite sports?

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I have been a Hull City season ticket holder for about 15 years. Looking forward to visiting St James this year looks a great stadium on the telly.

It is. My Auntie has season tickets and I usually go when she can't. People always say to just watch football on the TV but the experience of being at the game is fantastic. I just wish I could afford to go to every match.

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Nothing compares to being at a live match.

I was lucky enough to be at Wembley this year in the play-off final (which we won 1-0) with 86,000+ at the game. The atmosphere was unbelievable. Good luck to Newcastle this year...apart from when they play us..:D

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Nothing compares to being at a live match.

I was lucky enough to be at Wembley this year in the play-off final (which we won 1-0) with 86,000+ at the game. The atmosphere was unbelievable. Good luck to Newcastle this year...apart from when they play us..:D

 

I'm a Portsmouth fan.

I went to Wembley twice last season, to the FA cup semi-final and final, to watch us win!!!

St. James' Park is HUGE!! I sat right up the top of the away fans and I'm really scared of heights, wasn't good!

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Pompey did very well last year. Don't agree with the semi-finals being held at Wembley they should be at a neutral ground like before. It's not fair on us poor northerners.:D

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I wouldn't ever be able to go to a final because it's too far away. I would love to go to a match at Wembley just to say I've been. St James Park is huge, and my auntie's seats are quite far up at one end. I get quite scared walking back down because i hate heights and theres nothing to hold onto. :D

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I used to ride my horse every day but now we are both a bit older I`m a bit of a fairweather rider.

I also love the footie and have been follow following, Rangers for about 34 years

 

[aye I`m quite old]

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Hockey for me - or Ice Hockey as you call it over here. Montreal Canadiens for me!

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Hockey for me - or Ice Hockey as you call it over here. Montreal Canadiens for me!

 

Ah! Finally! A sound of reason!

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ii - You mentioned that your OH plays - does he play for a living or for fun?

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I did? Yeah, he plays, for living.

 

Completely unconnected to that fact (honestly!), I'm writing my thesis about hockey at the moment. *laughs*

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I enjoy watching Basketball. Loved playing volleyball and I grew up on the coast of SoCalifornia, so I adored body surfing.

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Seriously? Wow! What about? (The thesis ref hockey, I mean)

 

You're going to be so sorry you asked. I adore my thesis, so I can talk about it to no end! *laughs* I'll try to keep it short. Well, I'm Economics major, so I'm focusing on a special case of Game Theory called, rather descriptively, Bargaining Games. And I'm applying the theory to NHL player trade. Basically to see if the player trade follows the theory (after I've modified the theory, as it's not directly applicable) and if so, can game theoretic models be used for more effective trade, and if not, why not and could game theory help? Just really just finding out what's going on and if it makes any sense, from the point of view of economics, as if naturally does to the hockey execs! (as one of them pointed out at me, not at all amused at me for questioning it. "we like to think it does." was the exact phrase. *laughs* ooops.) And if game theory can be used in the player trade decision making. It's really truly fashinating, from both economics and hockey point of view. Well, to me anyways.

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Sorry 'ii' you lost me :roll:

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Sorry 'ii' you lost me :roll:

 

Was that a request for explanation or just to tell me that I'm talking gibberish again?

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Are you going to publish your thesis? It sounds interesting! I (though I do not use it any more) have a degree in Sports Broadcasting & used to work as a producer for a sports network (a long long time ago). I'd be curious to see if your theory pans out!

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Was that a request for explanation or just to tell me that I'm talking gibberish again?

Does it sort of mean....exchanging player for player on the same ability:blush: or at least that is what I was reading into it? Sorry wasn't much good at Economics at school:D

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Are you going to publish your thesis? It sounds interesting! I (though I do not use it any more) have a degree in Sports Broadcasting & used to work as a producer for a sports network (a long long time ago). I'd be curious to see if your theory pans out!

 

It's going to be a public work, yes. All degree papers in our school are. And I have no problems with giving you a copy, if you're interested, as I'm already sending it all over the place once it's done. (like, oh, the NHL. *laughs*)

 

Sports Broadcasting? That's fashinating! Why did you give it up?

 

Does it sort of mean....exchanging player for player on the same ability:blush: or at least that is what I was reading into it? Sorry wasn't much good at Economics at school:D

 

Not really, and yes. And no need to apologise! The player trade in the NHL is basically just that, trade in players. You cannot buy players from another club with money (as you can in football, for example) but you have to give players in return. (or draft picks, but that's complicating the issue.) Game Theory is basically a way of modelling decision-making situations, where there's more than one decision maker, and their decisions affect each other or their outcomes (that is, if you and I are the decision makes in the model, my decision affects either the decisions you can make, or what the result of your decision is).

 

What I'm trying to do is model the situation a hockey club faces when they're looking to acquire a new player. One of the questions to consider is the value of a player; it's easy if you have money, you say Player A is worth this and this much, and Player B is worth that much, and you compare, you see which you can get, but with this monetary market value unavailable, you need to find new ways of making that call. According to basic economic theory, you never trade a player to a player of similar value, but you need to gain. (because of uncertainty that the new player won't fit into the team as well as the old one. You know the old one, but not the new one.)

 

*shuts up*

Sorry. I did warn you though!

Edited by ii

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I think I get it ii (after five or six reads - pumping in my far far gone economic knowledge *laughs*). So basically you are trying to see if this economic theory is relevant to the player trade and could be used to model (and make easier) the decision making process?

 

I can see how it is a great thesis subject for an economist: it sounds really interesting, with a lot of research and 'playing around' with theories involved...

 

But I find it sad to think that it could all be put down to models and theories. Unlike those execs you met I like to think that sports should be about more than economy (but I'm probably deluded about that *laughs*). For instance it never made much sense to me that a regional team should be filled with players from other regions/countries (potentially playing for the adversary the next year), but still reflect on that regions sports quality... What is the point of priding yourself of having the best team, of playing the best football or hockey or whatever, if it all comes down to who you were able to get in the player trade?

 

I'm really not a sports fan so I might be talking nonsense, but the whole thing always confused me.

 

I hadnt seen your second answer before writing this. I can see it is a bit different with hockey (not directly paying for a player). But still not for me. *laughs*

Edited by Chimera

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OK :roll: I think I kinda get it. Makes a change it not all being about money. I can never understand how they can put a 'price' on somebody in sport (ie football) when transfers are on the go etc., and the open window time for free transfers etc. Ability seems a lot fairer way of exchanging/aquiring players, but then again suppose some folk are in it more for the money (and I probably really haven't got a clue what I am talking about :)) Thanks anyway.

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You're not talking nonsense at all, Chimera! They're all very valid points.

 

I think I get it ii (after five or six reads - pumping in my far far gone economic knowledge *laughs*). So basically you are trying to see if this economic theory is relevant to the player trade and could be used to model (and make easier) the decision making process?

 

Yes, pretty much so.

 

I can see how it is a great thesis subject for an economist: it sounds really interesting, with a lot of research and 'playing around' with theories involved...

 

It is. My original one was even better, from the economics point of view, but my professor stole that one. *laughs* The problem, and benefit, is that nothing like this has been done before. So I'm tackling some problems noone had to think of before!

 

But I find it sad to think that it could all be put down to models and theories. Unlike those execs you met I like to think that sports should be about more than economy (but I'm probably deluded about that *laughs*). For instance it never made much sense to me that a regional team should be filled with players from other regions/countries (potentially playing for the adversary the next year), but still reflect on that regions sports quality... What is the point of priding yourself of having the best team, of playing the best football or hockey or whatever, if it all comes down to who you were able to get in the player trade?

 

You're right about the regional thing, that's gone. It's only in the marketing plan. As for the best team, well, everyone else is trying to get the best team possible too. And the trade is not one-sided! Say you need a goalie. And this one team has an extra goalie, but they're really short on defenders. So it benefits both, making both teams better, if they trade a goalie for a defender, no? And after the 2004-05 lock-out, NHL installed a salary cap (like all the other pro leagues in North America) so that you can no longer just go and make contracts with the best players by offering them more money than anyone else. It's also in the best interest of the league to keep the teams as even as possible. (Tighter games means more audience, means more money.)

 

Also, it's important to notice that 'a player' is not an absolute quantity, an isolated unit. You can put together a team that's full of superstars, and still not do well (just look at pre-lockout NY Rangers, or early-2000 Russian National Team, especially in their own World Champ's). In the end making a winning team is getting the right players, at the right moment in their careers, playing under the righ coach, with the right game system... It's never going to be a computerised theory you can just calculate out. But there may be ways of handling the data more effectively and making the decision-making progress more effective and less about intuition and uncertainty. Maybe. I don't know. That's what I'm trying to find out. But you can never remove the human element.

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OK :roll: I think I kinda get it. Makes a change it not all being about money. I can never understand how they can put a 'price' on somebody in sport (ie football) when transfers are on the go etc., and the open window time for free transfers etc. Ability seems a lot fairer way of exchanging/aquiring players, but then again suppose some folk are in it more for the money (and I probably really haven't got a clue what I am talking about :)) Thanks anyway.

 

I don't know, you make sense to me! *laughs* The trick is in how to value the player. If you look at the example I gave in my answer to Chimera, the one about a goalie and the defender, you see that the team with plenty of goalies probably doesn't value the one extra much. But the one in need of goalie, is probably willing to give away quite a lot (wether in money or in players). So it's objective.

 

Also, there's been studies, that if you measure the value of a player by the salary they get, that's actually affected by the team around the player. Basically, the other players you have affect how much you're willing to pay for Player X. Which is rather logical, given the goalie example again.

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It is. My original one was even better, from the economics point of view, but my professor stole that one.

 

Thats so mean! What theme was it?

 

 

 

And the trade is not one-sided! Say you need a goalie. And this one team has an extra goalie, but they're really short on defenders. So it benefits both, making both teams better, if they trade a goalie for a defender, no? And after the 2004-05 lock-out, NHL installed a salary cap (like all the other pro leagues in North America) so that you can no longer just go and make contracts with the best players by offering them more money than anyone else.

 

Mmm yes, at least it benefits the general level of the teams...

 

 

It's also in the best interest of the league to keep the teams as even as possible. (Tighter games means more audience, means more money.)

 

Was that meant to convince me that sports arent only business ?? *cracks up*

 

In the end making a winning team is getting the right players, at the right moment in their careers, playing under the righ coach, with the right game system... It's never going to be a computerised theory you can just calculate out.

 

True, but generally the coach and all those who select/manage the teams also are variable, and tradable, quantity *laughs*

 

But there may be ways of handling the data more effectively and making the decision-making progress more effective and less about intuition and uncertainty. Maybe. I don't know. That's what I'm trying to find out. But you can never remove the human element.

 

Good luck! You'll have to tell us what you find out.

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Andy and I have been watching (and trying to understand) Amercian footie on BBC2 :roll::):)

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